(Too) slowly but surely?

After the tragic events in Manchester and the suspension in the campaigns, things have started again and a couple new polls have been released. Some of the media have also picked up the trend I was observing from my model and so I have re-updated the results.

The increasing trend for Labour does see another little surge, as does the decreasing trend for the Tories. In comparison to my last update, the Lib Dem are slightly picking up again. But all in all, the numbers still tell kind of the same story, I guess.

mean sd 2.5% median 97.5%
Conservative 369.251 5.1765622 357 370 378.000
Labour 197.886 5.2142298 190 197 211.000
UKIP 0.000 0.0000000 0 0 0.000
Lib Dem 15.085 2.3852598 11 15 19.025
SNP 49.263 2.3965756 44 49 53.000
Green 0.000 0.0000000 0 0 0.000
PCY 0.515 0.8499985 0 0 3.000
Other 0.000 0.0000000 0 0 0.000

These are the summary results as of today (again after discounting past polls). Lib Dem move from a median number of expected seats of 14 to the current estimate of 15; Labour go from 191 to 197 and the Tories go from 376 to 370, still comfortably in the lead.

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