Bayesian statistics, health economics and random stuff
I’ve managed to update my website to the newest version of wowchemy (that’s the engine that, together with blogdown runs the show, behind the scenes). Most changes are really under the hood and, to be fair, you wouldn’t see a lot of what has changed, by simply browsing. I think both wowchemy and the latest release of blogdown, however, make the work easier — it’s actually quite a steep learning curve to get yourself going.
Final time — the model (and bookies) predictions have indeed materialised and Italy face England in the final. I’ve done the final update after the semi-finals and here’s the model prediction. Italy are favourite — I think this is probably right, though I also believe it’ll probably be a slightly closer game. The bookies go the other way and, I think a bit overly-enthusiastically, tip England to be just above Italy (the odds map to probabilities of about 31% for Italy to win, 37% for England to win and 32% for a draw).
I haven’t posted the results for the quarter-finals ahead of the games, but I did run the model and here were the predictions. Not too bad, in the end: the model did get that Spain-Switzerland would be a tough one and the resulting 1-1 was one of the most likely outcomes. Similarly, while giving Belgium a bit of an edge, the model had predicted that their clash with Italy would be very close and the eventual 2-1 win for the Azzurri (yay!
Rob (who, together with his team, has been brilliant in the process of publishing and managing BMHE and BMPR) has alerted me to the fact thatour edited book “Bayesian Methods in Pharmaceutical Research (Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series)” (said “BMPR”), made it to BookAuthority’s Best New Bayesian Statistics Books. The official blurb says that BookAuthority collects and ranks the best books in the world, and it is a great honor to get this kind of recognition.
OK: I’ve now re-run the model using the updated data including all the games after the group stage. Firstly, a few comments/caveates: I think the model predictions for the round of 16 make kind of sense and I’m reasonably happy with them. BUT: there’s lots that the model doesn’t really know… For example, I’ve made no real adjustment for the fact that this batch of games is at the knockout stage, which means that, probably, we may see fewer goals as some teams may have a different attitude and would rather not lose the game at the 90th minute, in search of penalty glory.